📅 Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · By Barry Luchtel · 6 min read

How to Analyze a Fix-and-Flip Deal in the Phoenix Metro in 10 Minutes

In a market like the Phoenix metro, the deals that make money are usually the ones you can size up fast. When a wholesaler blasts a property out to their list at 6 a.m., the investor who already knows their numbers is the one who locks it up. The good news is that you don't need a spreadsheet with fifty tabs to know whether a flip is worth pursuing. You need four numbers and about ten minutes.

I've funded hundreds of fix-and-flip loans across Maricopa County, and the borrowers who consistently win all do the same thing: they run a quick back-of-the-napkin analysis before they ever tour the house. Here's the exact framework I'd use.

Start With the After-Repair Value (ARV)

Everything in a flip flows from the ARV — what the home will sell for once it's fully renovated. Get this number wrong and nothing else matters. To find it, pull three to five recently sold comparables within about a mile of the subject property, ideally in the same subdivision or school boundary. In the Phoenix metro, neighborhoods can shift block by block, so a comp in Arcadia tells you nothing about a house in Maryvale.

Focus on homes that sold in the last 90 days, with similar square footage, bed/bath count, and lot size. Look at what fully updated homes are fetching — not tired ones. If three remodeled 1,600 sq ft homes near your deal sold between $445,000 and $460,000, your ARV is roughly $450,000. Be conservative. It's better to be pleasantly surprised at resale than upside down.

Apply the 70% Rule as Your First Filter

The 70% rule is the fastest gut-check in the business. It says you should pay no more than 70% of the ARV minus your repair costs. The formula:

On our $450,000 ARV example, with an estimated $55,000 rehab:

If the seller wants $300,000, the deal probably doesn't pencil unless your rehab number is high or the comps are stronger than you think. If you can get it at $255,000, now you're talking. The 30% buffer baked into the rule is what covers your financing, holding costs, closing costs on both ends, and your profit. In the Phoenix metro's higher price points, I'll sometimes see experienced flippers stretch to 72–75% on clean, fast cosmetic deals — but 70% is the right place to start.

Pressure-Test Your Rehab Budget

The repair estimate is where new investors get hurt. A walkthrough where you eyeball "new paint and floors" turns into a $40,000 surprise once you open up the walls. Until you've done a few projects with a contractor you trust, budget by scope:

Light cosmetic (paint, flooring, fixtures, landscaping): $15–$30/sq ft

Moderate (kitchen, baths, some systems): $30–$50/sq ft

Heavy (layout changes, roof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing): $50–$80+/sq ft

Run the Full Deal in One Quick Table

Once you have ARV, purchase price, and rehab, the rest is simple arithmetic. Here's what a clean Phoenix metro deal looks like fully loaded:

A projected profit of $80,000+ on a deal like this gives you room to breathe if the rehab runs over or the home sits an extra month. If your projected profit drops below about $30,000, ask yourself whether the risk is worth it — a single surprise can eat that up.

Know Your Financing Before You Offer

Your analysis is only as good as the financing behind it. Hard money costs need to be in your numbers from the start, not bolted on after. At Kayak Capital we keep this simple: zero origination points, zero processing fees, zero prepayment penalties, and zero extension fees. The only thing you pay is interest for the time you actually hold the loan. That matters in a deal analysis, because hidden points and junk fees can quietly turn a $30,000 profit into a break-even.

We're asset-based lenders, which means we're underwriting the deal, not just your credit score. If the numbers work and the property is solid, we can approve and fund in days — fast enough to compete with cash offers in a tight Phoenix metro market.

The 10-Minute Recap

Pull comps and set a conservative ARV. Run the 70% rule to get your maximum offer. Sanity-check your rehab budget by scope and add a contingency. Drop everything into a quick cost table and look at the projected profit. If it clears your minimum with room to spare, move. If it doesn't, pass and wait for the next one — there's always another deal.

Speed and discipline aren't opposites in this business. The investors who can analyze a deal in ten minutes are the ones who can afford to say no quickly and yes confidently. Build the habit and the right deals start to feel obvious.